Chapter 30
Pascal'S Wager, Reversed
In the 17th century, the French mathematician Blaise Pascal proposed a famous argument for believing in God. The argument goes like this: if you believe in God and He exists, you gain infinite reward (heaven). If you believe in God and He doesn't exist, you lose almost nothing (some earthly pleasures). If you don't believe and He exists, you suffer infinite punishment (hell). If you don't believe and He doesn't exist, you gain almost nothing. So the rational bet is to believe.
Pascal's Wager has always been undermined by a fatal flaw: which God? There are thousands of religions, and believing in the wrong one might be worse than believing in none. Every religion can construct its own version of the wager, with its own rewards and punishments, and many of these are mutually contradictory. When all possible wagers are considered, the whole framework collapses.
But superimmortality offers its own version of the wager, one that does not suffer from this flaw.
The Superimmortality Wager
Here is the wager:
If superimmortality is true, then the development of scientific knowledge is enormously important. Understanding consciousness, understanding the brain, developing technology: these are the paths to ensuring that enhanced, positive versions of your consciousness exist in the future. Maintaining the Earth as a livable place, spreading life and consciousness through the universe, advancing scientific understanding: all of these increase the likelihood of good future existences for you and everyone else.
If superimmortality is false (if death truly is final), then the development of scientific knowledge is still important; it improves the quality of this one life, even if it's all you get. And maintaining the Earth, reducing suffering, advancing knowledge: these are good things regardless.
Key Terms in This Chapter
Read the rest of this chapter
The remaining text (examples, counter-arguments, and longer connective passages) is in the book.